Posts Tagged ‘Soccer’

It’s been about a week since the conclusion of the World Cup.  Congrats to Spain.  Espana es campeones del mundo as the result of a beautifully played tournament.  My family has close ties to Spain, so as the towers of tortilla, piles of paella and streams of sangria have finally subsided, I’m happy to have shared in the joy.  I’m also left with a strange emptiness as the incessant buzzing of the vuvuzela subsides and my tinnitus becomes audible again. But, I digress…

I want to talk about a few interesting aspects of decision making that struck me throughout the tournament, not all directly related to futbol.

First, the technology controversy.  Take a look at the video  montage to illustrate what had so many frazzled about the real time decision making of the refs.  There is probably no more pronounced case than with the first clip of the disallowed goal in the England v. Germany game, though many believe Karma may have been the culprit.

Here is what Fifa president Sepp Blatter said in the midst of the controversy

No matter which technology is applied, at the end of the day a decision will have to be taken by a human being. This being the case, why remove the responsibility from the referee to give it to someone else?

It’s an interesting perspective.  At first glance it seems to suggest that whomever the decision maker, at whatever vantage point, in whichever time frame is subject to the same uncertainties and asymmetries of information to assess the decision.  This is clearly not the case, just look at the video.  Then, I started thinking maybe Mr. Blatter had a point? Reviewers are indeed subject to their own set of biases and perception issues.  In some cases “going to the tape” can fail to resolve our doubts.  In the most ambiguous cases this seems to have only furthered speculation and spurred new interpretation of the events no matter how many efforts are made to unravel the confusion and quiet the controversy.

It’s important to recognize the different kinds of decisions, the snap decision, and those where we can take the luxury of process and deliberation.  Both are necessary, and there are arguments for both the snap and deliberation.  When time pressure constraints require us to make snap decisions, or when faced with a poorly described objective or poor information in deliberation, we are always prone to being misled by our judgment.  Many of you may know the selective attention test.  If you do I encourage you to watch it again and try again to achieve the objective.  If you haven’t seen this before watch and enjoy.  You have about a 50/50 chance of being very surprised.

We need to apply judgment and carefully interpret our perceptions to make good decisions.  So is it snap, or deliberate? I say YES.  I find myself uncomfortable with the Sucker’s Choice that these debates often set up.  It seems we’re often unwilling to wrestle with the more complex questions of how to combine such approaches, rather than choose between them.  There seems to clearly be a role for “thin slicing” information to be used in the process of deliberation to avoid analysis paralysis.

So, there is drama in decision making.  When it comes to futbol, many argue that this may fuel interest in the game.  It makes it more than a sport about the pure superiority of one team over another and enters in elements of chance, destiny, triumph over adversity, and the risks of being toppled by fate.  We seem to fight against this.  Maybe it hits too close to home.  So when fans of a sport say leave it alone, maybe they recognize something.  Maybe they recognize that our decisions are riddled with uncertainty and aren’t perfect, and very likely and simply cannot be.  We can only work to reach that threshold of certainty that lets us act, and we have to find the means to efficiently and effectively decide given the circumstances, and then have the courage and character to deal with the consequences.

The more we can come together and rely on each other to try to make sense of complex situations, recognizing technology as an extremely valuable ally (with imperfections) that we can partner with to better focus the picture or aggregate our judgment, we can often times improve our outcomes.

Luckily, if all else fails there is a fall back.  We can always submerge our options in an aquarium and drop in an Octopus to sort things out.

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